Climate change in Armenia is no longer an issue concerning only the future. Rising temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, declining water resources, and the increasing frequency and intensity of hazardous weather events are gradually becoming more visible in the everyday lives of communities across the country.
On 21 August 2026 “Dark Green Talks” series, organized by the Armenia Tree Project (ATP) at the office of the Armenian Assembly of America, focused on climate risk manifestations in Armenia and the challenges of managing them.
This was the second meeting in “Dark Green Talks” series, which aims to bring together experts and the public to discuss Armenia’s most pressing environmental issues.
The speaker at the second meeting was Armen Chilingaryan, an expert in climate and disaster risk management. The discussion was moderated by Marina Mkhitaryan, Director of Strategic Partnerships and Impact at the Armenia Tree Project.
The discussion addressed climate change projections, hazardous natural phenomena, forest fires, agriculture, water resources, biodiversity, as well as challenges related to public administration and community engagement.
According to Armen Chilingaryan, the impact of climate change in Armenia is undeniable. Although natural changes have occurred in the country’s climate system in the past as well, human economic activity is now having a significant influence on the changes being observed. Armenia is projected to experience an increase of up to 4.7°C in average annual temperature by 2100, while precipitation could decrease by up to 8.3%. Under a pessimistic scenario, the reduction in river flow could reach 39%. According to the expert, these figures should already be considered in the country’s long-term development plans.
Armenia has around ten climate zones, and the manifestations of climate change are not the same across all areas. Consequently, different communities and sectors may experience the impacts of the same climate change differently. “We are talking more about the intensity of the manifestation of climate extremes,” Armen Chilingaryan said during the discussion, referring to hazardous natural phenomena. According to him, Armenia is already experiencing phenomena such as intense precipitation, hailstorms, mudflows, floods, drought, water scarcity, and forest fires. Some of these phenomena have also been recorded in the past, but the issue is the change in their frequency and intensity.
According to the expert, one of Armenia’s main challenges is that climate risks are still not adequately incorporated into the development and management of economic and development programmes. If climate change scenarios are already known, their potential impacts should be assessed for every major development programme, both in terms of the emergence of new risks and the programme’s vulnerability to existing hazards. “When developing any economic programme, we need to deal with two important elements. First, what new risks could the economic development we are proposing bring with it, considering climate change and the environment in which we are implementing this process? And second, how vulnerable are the investments we want to make as part of the economic programme to existing hazards?” Armen Chilingaryan said. According to him, incorporating these two considerations into development processes requires scientific knowledge, monitoring, digital technologies, and adequate professional capacity.
Armen Chilingaryan noted that Armenia has made some progress in collecting and digitizing weather data. However, weather forecasting and climate risk modelling are not the same. According to him, risk modelling should indicate not only what weather phenomenon is expected, but also its likely intensity, which areas will be exposed to danger, and what measures are needed to reduce potential damage. In the case of a mudflow, for example, it is necessary to determine what intensity of precipitation could trigger a mudflow, take the terrain into account, identify areas at risk, and develop protective measures in advance. From this perspective, the expert stressed, Armenia needs to develop its climate risk modelling methodologies and toolkit. “If we do not see the full picture, it is impossible to talk about the effectiveness of the management process,” he emphasized.
A separate part of the discussion focused on forest fires. According to Armen Chilingaryan, their prevention requires a more detailed assessment of forest conditions, including soil moisture, temperature, wind direction, and other factors.
The discussion also addressed the interaction between climate change and agriculture. According to the expert, existing agricultural approaches need to be reconsidered under changing climate conditions. Rising temperatures and declining precipitation increase pressure on water resources, while some agricultural sectors are already highly dependent on water resources. The issue of fish farming and the use of artesian water in the Ararat Valley was cited as an example. Inefficient water resource management has resulted in changes in groundwater levels, soil salinization and degradation, which in turn contribute to desertification processes. According to Armen Chilingaryan, it is more effective to prevent such situations from arising than to invest substantial resources later in restoring already degraded land. At the same time, adapting agriculture to climate change requires new approaches, including introducing less water-intensive crops suited to local conditions, applying drip irrigation, developing intensive horticulture, and testing new technologies. The expert emphasized that the selection of new crops or agricultural models for climate change adaptation should also be based on trials and practical testing rather than theoretical projections alone.
During the discussion, Kristina Ter-Matevosyan, a journalist from EcoLur Informational NGO, also raised the issue of the interconnection between climate change and biodiversity in the context of Armenia hosting COP17, the 17th Conference of the Parties to the UN Convention on Biological Diversity.
According to Armen Chilingaryan, COP17 could provide an opportunity to draw attention to issues that have not received sufficient attention to date. He cited the impact of urban development processes on biodiversity as an example. When natural habitats are transformed for urban development purposes, the animals living there lose their habitats and may move into urban areas. Another challenge is the lack of data. According to the expert, even following disasters such as the 2024 flood in Alaverdi, there is insufficient data on the impact on biodiversity. In his assessment, biodiversity conservation requires not only monitoring protected areas and forests but also assessing potential impacts within urban planning and economic development programmes.
August 26, 2026 at 12:09