To What Extent Armenia Fulfilled Its Climate Commitments Under NDC?

To What Extent Armenia Fulfilled Its Climate Commitments Under NDC?

On November 22, “EcoLur” Press Club hosted a roundtable on the topic of "On the Draft Law of the Republic of Armenia on Climate Change and Ahead of New NDC." The purpose was to discuss the draft law on climate change and present EcoLur’s analysis of Armenia’s nationally determined contributions (NDCs) for 2021-2030 under the Paris Agreement. The discussion was organized by EcoLur Informational NGO within the framework “Empowering Communities in Armenia through Participation and Awareness in Climate Policy Implementation” project implemented in cooperation with the Yerevan Office of the Heinrich Böll Foundation’s South Caucasus Regional Office.

Victoria Burnazyan, Deputy President of EcoLur Informational NGO, presented EcoLur’s analysis of the implementation of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). NDCs are developed by the parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change under the Paris Agreement and are aimed at climate change adaptation and mitigation.

She noted that, according to the 2019 National GHG Inventory Report for 1990-2019, 64% of GHG emissions in Armenia come from the “Energy” sector. By 2030, GHG emissions from the energy sector are expected to reach 11,153 Gg CO2-equivalent.

By 2040, renewable energy capacity is planned to reach 2,000 MW, out of which 1,500 MW will come from solar energy and 500 MW from wind energy. The capacity of small hydropower is planned to reach 430 MW. As a result, the share of electricity generated from renewable energy sources in gross final consumption is expected to reach around 50% by 2030, including large hydropower plants, and about 60% by 2040.

In 2022, the share of renewable energy in electricity generation was 11.82%, in 2023 it was 12.46%, and in the first half of 2024, it reached 21.56%.

Forestry Sector

Victoria Burnazyan noted that, according to the 1990-2019 National GHG Inventory Report, carbon sequestration in the "Forestry and Other Land Use" sector decreased from -49.4% in 1990 to -20.7% in 2017. The NDCs plan to increase the country's forest cover to 12.9% by 2030 by increasing forested areas by 50,000 hectares.

“With the current rate of afforestation, it is impossible and unrealistic to achieve the NDC target of 12.9% forest cover in Armenia by 2030 or the 20.0% target by 2050,” Victoria Burnazyan noted. To date, the area of forest cover in Armenia has not been precisely determined (according to official data, forests cover 11.2%, but in fact, it is estimated to be 8%-10%).

In 2019, according to the 1990-2019 National GHG Inventory Report, the share of GHG emissions from the "Industrial Processes and Product Use" sector was 11.5%. Under the low-emission long-term strategy, emissions in this sector are expected to reach 1,442 Gg CO2-equivalent by 2030 and 1,725 Gg CO2-equivalent by 2050.

According to the 1990-2019 National GHG Inventory Report, GHG emissions from the "Agriculture" sector accounted for 18.5%.

In “Agriculture” sector, GHG emissions are planned to be reduced by:

  • Using manure for biogas production.
  • Increasing irrigation system efficiency (improving water delivery efficiency in irrigation schemes covering 36,000 hectares and reducing electricity consumption).
  • Introducing new breeds of livestock (importing 3,000 head of cattle annually).
  • Improving feed quality.

According to the 1990-2019 National GHG Inventory Report, emissions from "Waste" sector in 2019 were 628.70 Gg CO2-equivalent, accounting for 6.0% of total emissions. Under the low-emission long-term strategy, measures for the “Waste” sector aim to reduce emissions in this sector to 484 Gg CO2-equivalent by 2050.

This article was prepared within the framework of “Empowering Communities in Armenia through Participation and Awareness in Climate Policy Implementation” project implemented in cooperation with the Yerevan Office of the Heinrich Böll Foundation’s South Caucasus Regional Office.

November 27, 2024 at 13:04