At the end of 2021, RA Ministry of Territorial Administration and Infrastructure launched "National Program for Renewable Energy - Energy Saving 2022-2030". The document mainly mentions solar energy out of all renewable energy forms. Hydropower, which has developed over the last 10-15 years, is not considered in the document.
There is only the following mention about hydropower: "Considering the fact that no significant changes are expected in hydropower in the upcoming years (given the limited resources and possible negative impact on the environment), the share of hydropower in the final energy consumption structure in 2030 will constitute 3.6% compared to 2019, decreasing by 2.6%, which, in fact, will be "compensated" by increasing the shares of other modern renewable energy sources."
Hydropower Not Considered in Long-term Projects
Hydropower is excluded from the programs envisaged in this document. For example, it is planned to give up natural gas for domestic demand at the expense of the construction of 700 MW power plants, specifically mentioning "except for hydropower".
In order to reduce the demand for firewood, it is planned to implement development programs for solar, wind and biomass power plants in cooperation with the private sector of the communities. There is no mention of hydropower.
It should be noted that the share of hydropower in the total volume of useful electricity supply currently makes up 30%, including the electricity generated by Vorotan and Sevan-Hrazdan hydropower plants and small hydropower plants.
Meanwhile, the share of electricity generated by solar power plants makes up about 1.15%. It is planned to increase this share to 15% by 2040. Even with this indicator, solar energy will be inferior to hydropower.
Share of Hydropower in Annual Production of Electricity Decreasing
According to the official website of RA Public Services Regulatory Commission, only 7632.3 million kWh of electricity was generated in the Republic of Armenia in 2019, out of which 955.6 million kWh or 12.52% of the total electricity was generated by small hydropower plants, 1415.4 million kWh, or 18.54% of all electricity produced was generated by large hydropower companies.
In 2020, only 7723.4 million kWh of electricity was produced in the Republic of Armenia, out of which 832.0 million kWh or 10.77% of the total electricity produced by SHPPs, 946.4 million kWh by large hydropower companies, or 12.25% of the total electricity produced.
In 2021, only 7674.9 million kWh of electricity was produced in the Republic of Armenia, out of which 804.6 million kWh, or 10.48% of the total electricity produced by SHPPs, 1397.2 million kWh, or 18.2% of the total electricity produced by large hydropower companies.
According to www.psrc.am, as of October 1, 2021, the Republic of Armenia has electricity generation licenses with a total capacity of 189 SHPPs 384442.4 kW, with an annual useful delivery of 960.7 million kWh of electricity per year. They have a license to generate electricity, but 23 more SHPPs with a total capacity of 46183.7 kW are under construction with an annual capacity of 163.9 million kWh.
Annex 2 of RA Government decision N 48-L dated on January 14, 2021, envisages the construction of SHPPs increasing the total installed capacity from 380 MW to 430 MW/around 100% of the capacity.
The document does not take into account that the share of hydropower in electricity generation may be much lower than expected and mix all forecasts if the sector is not prepared for the negative impacts of climate change; if no adaptation and mitigation steps are taken; if the efficiency of hydropower plant equipment is not increased, if accurate water management calculations are not based on water use permits for hydropower plants.
Unresolved issues will not only affect electricity production, but will also exacerbate environmental problems, destruction of river ecosystems, deepening of desertification processes, microclimate change, and declining fish stocks.
Financial Difficulties for Small Hydropower Plants
In recent years, 5 companies operating small hydropower plants have gone bankrupt. It is not ruled out that after the expiration of the 15-year state guarantee period for the mandatory purchase of electricity produced by small hydropower plants, a number of small hydropower plants will face financial difficulties in the conditions of liberalization of the electricity market.
Suggestions:
These risks need to be assessed and solutions developed, which should be included in the National Renewable Energy Program. The document should offer solutions to the problems arising from the development of natural energy. It is noteworthy that, while mentioning the development of solar energy, which is considered a favorite of the program, the document does not provide answers to questions such as what fate awaits the decommissioned panels or other waste. What standards should be used for that? Will the use of agricultural lands for unrestricted solar energy harm the development of agriculture, will it not threaten food security? The answers to these questions are important for the sustainable development of renewable energy.
March 09, 2022 at 17:12